Isla Vista, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

595
FXUS66 KLOX 311611
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
911 AM PDT Sat May 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...31/848 AM.

Cooler but more humid conditions this weekend as tropical
moisture moves over the region, with a chance for showers or a
thunderstorm. Near normal conditions will follow Monday and
Tuesday, with a modest warm up towards the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...31/910 AM.

***UPDATE***

No changes from earlier forecasts. Moisture moving into the area
from the southeast will increase humidities and bring a chance of
some showers across the area, mainly south of SLO County, and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Hi res models continue to
highlight the interior mountain areas between eastern Santa
Barbara and western Ventura Counties as being the most likely
targets for storm initiation this afternoon and evening, with
lesser chances over the San Gabriels and adjacent Antelope Valley.
This is likely due to less cloud cover across the western
mountains vs the San Gabriels and thus more surface heating
creating stronger updrafts. And can`t rule out showers in non-
mountain areas as PW`s increase later today and especially
overnight tonight into Sunday. Instability decreases tonight and
Sunday so the best chances for storms would be late this afternoon
and evening.

As mentioned below it will become increasingly muggy through the
day and tonight. Overnight lows tonight will likely be unusually
warm due to the high moisture content aloft trapping more of the
daytime heating than usual. Highs today will be cooler overall but
still well above normal with increasing humidity exacerbating the
situation. Not enough for any heat advisories but enough to make
it uncomfortable.

***From Previous Discussion***

The Heat Advisories have completed their run as temperatures
remain on track to lower over the weekend. Temperatures will stay
above normal however, and will still feel warm as humidity rises
with the advance of tropical moisture from the south. Some might
even say that it feels muggy by tonight. This moisture draw is due
to an upper level cut off low, with a center currently stalled
400 miles south of Los Angeles, generating steady southeast flow
aloft. Whenever we deal with a tropical moisture surge, we
instantly look to the shower and thunderstorm chances. The other
two key ingredients are there, instability (MUCAPE 500-1000+ and
K-Index 35-40) and potential kickers (500 millibar vorticity
disturbances and omega values of 10+). While most of the computer
models are scant on rainfall, the high resolution CAMs are
resolving some reflectivity returns which gives us a little
confidence that something will form somewhere. For this afternoon,
models continue to highlight the mountains along the Santa
Barbara and Ventura County border, which should get the best mix
of sunshine and elevated moisture. To the east, ample clouds will
be streaming in which will limit afternoon heating, but being
closest to the moisture source, a shower or two cannot be ruled
out. For tonight and Sunday, the shower chances will expand over
most of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties as the moisture peaks and
several upper level disturbances rotate through. The most likely
scenario is for much of the area to see a few inconsequential fat
drops falling from the sky, but a spot or two or three will get a
legit but brief shower. Cannot discount a thunderstorm or two as
well, especially over the San Gabriels and Antelope Valley thanks
to the favorable northeast steering flow by Sunday.

The vast majority of projections have the low quickly pushing east
Sunday night as another upper level low drops into northern
California, with the moisture feed shutting down fast. As that
next low rotates through southern California Monday and Tuesday,
the ingredients are in place for more June-like weather to return
with a marine layer covering most coastal and valley areas, and
gusty southwest winds over the interior.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...31/321 AM.

Little change expected from Monday through Wednesday, with
typical June Gloom conditions on the coastal side of the ranges,
and breezy warm conditions on the desert side. Ensemble
projections show a range of outcomes for the back half of next
week, ranging from little change to a modest warm up as the flow
turns more northwesterly.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1153Z.

At 0736Z, the marine layer was 1200 feet deep at KLAX. The top of
the inversion was around 2300 feet with a temperature of 28 C.

Overall, low to moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF Package. High
confidence for desert and valley terminals and low for coastal
sites. Timing of cig/vsby restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours and
minimum flight cats off by one or two.

KLAX...Low confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 10% chc of LIFR
cigs (002-004) and a 40% chc of IFR cigs (005-009) thru 15Z Sat.
Departure of cigs may be off +/- 2 hours. Low confidence in timing
of cigs returning but will likely be MVFR 010-020. There is a 30%
chance of SHRA after 12Z Sun. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...31/844 AM.

For the outer waters, moderate to high confidence. Conditions
will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Sunday
morning. There is a 50% chance of SCA level wind gusts across the
northern Outer Waters, around Point Conception, and south to San
Nicolas Island Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours.
Additionally, there is a 50% chance for seas to reach 10 feet in
the northern Outer Waters late Sunday into Monday afternoon.
Thereafter, conditions look to remain below advisory criteria
through next week.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, high confidnece
in conditions remaining below SCA criteria through the week.
However, there is a 20-30% chance for SCA level wind gusts Sunday
afternoon into late night.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, high confidence in conditions
remaining below SCA criteria through next week. However, there is
a 20% chance of SCA level wind gusts over the western portion
during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through
next week.

An upper level low pressure system off the coast of Baja
California will bring a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon through Sunday, especially south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox